Who were last year’s sleeper QBs?
1)Mathew Stafford
2)Cam Newton
3)Ryan Fitzpatrick
4)Eli Manning
5)Josh Freeman
6)Tim Tebow
7)Mark Sanchez

Who is this year’s Mathew Stafford?

Stafford was not healthy for most of 2010. However, during the 3 game span that he played, he still put up good stats.
In 96 attempts he put up 535 yards and 6 TDs or .486 FFL points per passing attempt. This is a good stat that incorporates offense and production based on number of opportunities. He progressed on more attempts to 0.523 last year in his breakout year while doing so for a full season on more attempts.

Similarly Matt Flynn and Jake Locker both had limited time and did well with it. Flynn is on a new team which is unfortunate because GB is a talented team with talented weapons. However, he still enters a familiar offense as the former Packer QB coach Bevell is the O-Cordinator so the only thing that could hurt him is the talent level dropoff, not the new offensive scheme. But Sidney Rice will be healthy and a great deep threat.
Jake Locker is also a potential Matt Stafford. A Young QB with limited time who did well with his time, and could start over Hasselback.
Matt Flynn put up a staggering .946 FFL points per attempt. Compare that to Aarron Rodger’s .723. Granted, the sample size is limited and people probably would learn to adjust to Matt Flynn at some point, and I certainly don’t think that makes him a better QB than Rodgers. Additionally, he certainly enters a much less favorable situation in Seattle. But with that being said, he could easily put up top 5 fantasy numbers per attempt, although he might not get as many attempts as Stafford did last year.
Jake Locker put up a tremendous .528 FFL points per attempt on 66 attempts. Enter a healthy Kenny Britt (hopefully) and another year under his belt, and if Jake Locker can start, he’s a wonderful very late pick that could have sleeper written all over it. Jake Locker has the offensive tools around him to produce like a top QB in the NFL if given a chance. Hopefully he can do so without taking a step back before he takes 2 forward as many young players may do, but I believe he could be a big sleeper.
Matt Flynn is this year’s Matt Stafford.

Who is this year’s Eli Manning?

Eli Manning was 7th of top 32 QBs in FFL points per attempt with .4935. So who is a veteran with experience that has another year with talented young WRs. Good FFL points per attempt at around or above .40? Here are the candidates with a FFL points per attempt above .395
Aaron Rodgers, QB
Drew Brees, QB
Tom Brady, QB
Matthew Stafford, QB
Tony Romo, QB
Matt Schaub, QB
Eli Manning, QB
Matt Ryan, QB
Philip Rivers, QB
Mark Sanchez, QB
Michael Vick, QB
Carson Palmer, QB
Ben Roethlisberger, QB
Cam Newton, QB
Jay Cutler, QB
Christian Ponder
Most of these players will get drafted far too high. Eli Manning went around the 8th to 10th round range. We will eliminate any QB projected to get drafted in the 5th round or later. Eli Manning ADP around the end of the 5th round and early 6th is worth considering but I will get rid of that as well. I will put all 6th and 7th rounders in parenthesis.
(Tony Romo)
Matt Schaub
(Matt Ryan)
(Philip Rivers)
Mark Sanchez
Carson Palmer
Ben Roethlisberger
Jay Cutler
Christian Ponder

Tony Romo drafted earlier. More talented offense than Eli, but probably less intelligent. A good pick, but probably not good enough in 6th round to match Eli in 9th round last year.
Schaub. Good pick in 8th round, but unless Arian Foster gets injured, it’s a rushing offense so not as good. In fact, I like Romo in 6th better.
Matt Ryan. I like this pick because it is a 9th round pick (well, end of 8th round), and Very talented WRs. Matt Ryan is talented and enters a vertical offense. This is not the same as Eli, as Eli is a consistent QB who was a safe value pick, not a higher risk pick like Matt Ryan is. Ryan has the upside to be an Eli pick, but has a bit more downside as well.
Phill Rivers. Phil has potential to bounce back. But he’s not worth a pick this high unless you are VERY confident he will without V.Jackson.
Mark Sanchez is going undrafted. This could be a great pick if only the Jets pass more this year. They have a new Offensive Coordinator, but Rex Ryan likes to Run. Unfortunately unless Sanchez gets traded and Tebow starts, I do not think he is this year’s Eli.

Ben Roethlisberger Good thing for Ben, Todd Haley is the new OC. Also good for Ben, Mendenhall is down and Isaac Redman is in on contract year. They will want to pass the ball more, and when they run they will still do well enough. The value is very close here. Not quite as good as Eli last year, but very close and with a bit more upside perhaps, but a slightly lower expected amount. You still are getting a very good starter in the 9th round.

Jay Cutler – Jay Cutler gets rid of the headache named Mike Martz who drops back too far, doesn’t have enough blockers and caused Cutler to take too many sacks and become emotionally very frustrated. He also adds the target that made him productive in Brandon Marshall. Mike Tice is a 2TE run the ball type of guy, so I don’t know if this fits, but he will still pass the ball a reasonable amount of time and isn’t afraid to go deep. But without the 7 step no protection drop. Instead, 2 TEs sets will set up the playaction ball deep. This pick is not an eli manning pick, but look for Cutler to have a bounceback.

Christian Ponder – What Jerome Simpson adds on the outside is perhaps not like what Vincent Jackson would have added, but he can still make plays and more importantly will allow Percy Harvin to be MUCH more productivel. When the Vikings had Randy Moss 2 years ago, Harvin had a staggering 10 YPC more than without him. Harvin was still a top 10 WR when you add in his rushing yards and TDs, but this is absolutely what the Vikings offense needs. Add in Matt Kalil protecting his blindside, and you don’t downgrade much at LG to do it as Charlie Johnson is better inside. A healthy Peterson but still unhealthy enough for the Vikings to rely more on passing means Ponder could be a sleeper. He is more of a gamble as his numbers were just okay last year,but he qualifies for sleeper potential if you put in rushing numbers it gives him a boost. He is going undrafted, but I think he is worth drafting.

Josh Freeman. Josh Freeman has lower FFL points per attempt. If you add in rushing it makes him close to being considered. I think you will see a much imporved offense. Mike Williams is a good redzone target,but is not someone that can take on doubleteams like Vincent Jackson. Now Mike Williams underneath is more productive. Add in a Left Guard in Carl Nicks and a rookie 1st rounder in Doug Martin giving Blount a more effective role as maye more of a brandon Jacobs style role and the offense is much improved. The thing that concerns me is Johnson’s vision. He seems afraid to sling the ball downfield more. He will be asked to do just that, so I don’t know how much of that was the offensive coordinator last year, and how much of that was Josh Freeman. Freeman needs a bit more of a “tony Romo” mentality for fantasy value to be worth an “eli Manning” style pick here. I will watch the preseason closely. Freeman reportely has lost significant weight and will be ready to run more effectively.

Carson Palmer could be this year’s Eli Manning. I believe his WRs are a half step behind in development than Hakim Nicks and Mario Manningham and Victor Cruz. But both are downfield QBs who have young WRs that could make another leap of progression, Carson Palmer has another year and this time a full season to play and full offseason to prepare. He actually is a bigger sleeper right now in that he is getting drafted in the 12th round, but he won’t produce as well most likel. I think that value-wise he is roughly the equivalent in that you are getting a player who will prove to be worth a good amount more than he is being drafted as. New coach is a former D-coordinator, but the OC remains the same. Ideally, the head coach won’t interfere and force the OC to run the ball more.With Michael Bush out, and McFadden Injury prone, It’s a possibility that the Raiders pass more. It is also a possibility that the offense progresses with another year under the same OC, and the young WRs can develop.

QBs to watch for this year’s Tim Tebow?
Tebow was a backup of course who was given an opportunity. By this standard, Matt Leinhart, John Kitna,Bruce Gradkowski,Brian Hoyer,Matt Moore,Joe Webb,John Skelton and Tim Tebow himself could be the pick because they have been effective in fantasy football scoring when given an opportunity.
Tim Tebow went undrafted in leagues and did very well when given a chance.
Jake Locker, Christian Ponder and Mark Sanchez are a possibility from the perspective of undrafted players that put up good fantasy numbers.
Jake Locker is this year’s Tim Tebow.
Who is this year’s Ryan Fitzpatrick. Ryan Fitzpatrick was drafted near the end and sometimes undrafted. He is a mobile QB who despite being undrafted in many leagues put up great numbers as the Bils offense started clicking. Well He finished the year 11th in fantasy numbers and many people didn’t even notice. That’s why Ryan Fitzpatrick is still getting drafted in the 13th round and is still going to be great value. Ryan Fitzpatrick IS this year’s Ryan Fitzpatrick.
But who else can go undrafted and finish top 15?
Josh Freeman isn’t quite getting drafted late enough to get undrafted, as he is getting put in 11th round. Alex Smith IS! Plus, they added a ton of talent. He may not quite be all there yet, but he has been working on his release and mechanics of throwing and Randy Moss has made many great QBs out of mediocre ones… Just ask Jeff George, Brad Johnson, Todd Bouman, Gus Frerrotte,etc. Now add in Mario Manningham and 1st round draft choice AJ Jenkins and put in Brandon Jacobs in the offense to keep Frank Gore at his best all year and rookie LeMichael James on 3rd downs out of the backfield and oh yeah, Vernon Davis showed the type of superstar ability in the playoffs similar to Marshawn Lynch’s run at the end of the year in 2010 that carried over and you have yourself a QB with too many weapons around him not to do well. So.. Alex Smith is this year’s Ryan Fitzpatrick 2.0. Mark Sanchez and Ponder are in there. Ponder adds a LT, his old LT shifts to LG, he adds Jerome Simpson, and he has some serious weapons. Percy Harvin will do better with Jerome Simpson. Adrian will possibly be back for a full 16 games, and Ponder did well and now gets a full offseasomn and 16 game season as starter to get things done. Ponder is NOT getting drafted at all but he should be and he could be top 15. So after much Pondering, Christian Ponder is this year’s Ryan Fitzpatrick. A very intelligent athletic QB who failed to score a rushing TD, but still put up yardage and who has a top 10 WR (Percy Harvin) just like Fitzpatrick had Steve Johnson who came out of nowhere to be a top WR. I believe the offense will make significant strides and many people won’t even notice that Ponder is a top 15 fantasy QB, but by the end of the year he will be.

Who is this year’s Josh Freeman?
Josh Freeman put up .462068 FFL points per attempt in 2010 putting him 9th.
Josh Freeman had decent rushing numbers, but no TDs in 2010. he had 4 in 2011.

So unlike other QBs, what we are looking for now is QBs that have rushing abilities (over 100 yards), but that didn’t get in the endzone more than 3 times.
Michael Vick
Christian Ponder
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Colt McCoy
Alex Smith
Joe Webb
Andy Dalton
John Skelton
Chad Henne
Tarvaris Jackson

Lets clean that list up to only include starters

Michael Vick
Christian Ponder
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Alex Smith
Andy Dalton

Now I’m hesitant to do this, but based on points per attempt being under .40 I have to take out Andy Dalton. Please don’t take this as a knock on Dalton, he certainly has upside, and probably will pass the ball as much as 2011 and I even believe he will improve his effectiveness with AJ green having another year… But I just can’t list him as this year’s Josh Freeman and don’t consider him as much of a “runner” as they other guys on the list either.
Michael Vick will go too early to call him this year’s Josh Freeman. However, he may go late enough (4th or 5th round) to be worth the pick. But that isn’t the question.
We are looking for deep sleepers here that will be likely to improve in rushing TDs due to the high variability in TDs. So
Christian Ponder is a candidate. Even more so because he will see a full 16 games worth of snaps as the starter.
Ryan Fitzpatrick has not got in the endzone in last 2 years. That is surprising considering his scrambling ability. That will change
Alex Smith is a candidate.

Both the Vikings and 49ers seem to be focused on getting as many weapons to surround their QB with. The 49ers are more focused on winning now getting veterens in Brandon Jacobs, Randy Moss and Mario Manningham, while also adding AJ Jenkings and LaMichael James they Vikings are focused on Rookies and young players like Matt Kalil, Kyle Rudolph (last year) and rookies Childs and Wright at WR, also adding young free agent Jerome Simpson while they have key young players like Adrian Peterson(no longer young for RB but average), Toby Gerhart and Percy Harvin. The Vikings want to get younger and put themselves in a position to continue to grow where as the 49ers had a taste of a deep playoff run and they want to win it all right now. I think Vikings can still compete, but I think Alex Smith is more prepared as a passer to take it to the next level and is in a more similar situation this year than Ponder or Fitzpatrick. I like the others, but you will likely be able to get Ponder after the draft if you have an extra roster spot, and we already have him pegged as this year’s Ryan Fitzpatrick. I could easily flip these two, but I am going to say that Alex Smith is this year’s Josh Freeman.

Who is this year’s Cam Newton?

Newton was a rookie so we cannot evaluate him very well particularly compared to the other sleepers. We can perhaps evaluate his offense in 2010 and the changes made before the 2011 seasons, which had just added a couple of good tightends, an O-coordinator and still had an explosive veteran WR in Steve Smith. Of course the comparison is going to be RG3 due to the style of play. RG3 is faster. In fact, Cam Newton and Andrew Luck ran the same 40 time at the combine, but RG3 beat them both. Andrew Luck and Cam were both #1. So one could make an equal argument that Andrew Luck is the Cam Newton of this year. However, Andrew Luck is a more Pro-style offense, where as Cam Newton and RG3 are unique players that coaches adapt the playbook around them instead of the other way around. Andrew Luck is more like Peyton Manning in that he calls the pay s himself and engineers a winning drive, so he certainly is unique in that sense.
Andrew Luck joins a very different team in 2012 than the one in 2011, much like Cam Newton joined a team in 2011 that was different than 2010. One will argue that Cam Newton shouldn’t be compared to Andrew Luck, and I tend to agree. Although they are more similar than people realize, they are still very different style of QBs. Cam is much more shifty and loves to go deep downfield. He has great accuracy like Luck, but he tends to stretch the sideline to the WRs where as Andrew Luck loves his tightends. Although Cam was put in an offense that featured the TEs. Cam had solid veterens in Shocky, Olsen at TEs and Steve Smith at WR to help him along. Andrew Luck still has Reggie Wayne, very comparable… a veteren WR who people fear is regressing, but in reality has the potential to breakout with the right QB. Austin Collie will also be solid. The Colts drafted 2 rookie TEs including Luck’s college teammate Coby Fleener and also Dwayne Allen. I believe the real major difference that means no one is this year’s Cam Newton, is that Cam Newton was used like a goalline back. In college they would have him take the ball out of the shotgun and dive over the top and surprisingly they also did that in the pros his first year. They signed Mike Tolbert, presumably to take Cam Newton’s Goal-line work away this year. Andrew Luck is certainly talented. And he may put up great numbers and he will likely be drafted very late. He is no doubt worth a gamble as your backup QB, particularly if you delay drafting a QB until later. As then Luck will have a chance to start, rather than potentially be trade bait.
Ryan Tannehill is joining an offense without any weapons at WR other than Reggie Bush. Unless they sign a veteran like Donald Driver, Plaxico Burress, Braylon Edwards or trade for someone, they don’t have the talent around him. I expect Ryan Tannehill to do just fine as a rookie, but not good enough to matter in ffantasy football. However, in year 2 and 3 I expect him to make strides if they can build talent around him. So there only are 2 options to be this year’s “cam Newton” and RG3 certainly could be as well.

RG3 has a veteran WR in Santana Moss, but also has Pierre Garcon who did great considering the QB situation last year when he was at Indianapolis. He has Hankerson and Anthony Armstrong. It would have been nice if they kept Jabar Gaffney, but it’s not like he won’t do okay with Pierre Garcon. Even so, they added Josh Morgan. The WR core is arguably better than the Panthers, even though Steve Smith probably was a notch better than everyone else on Redskins team, the Redskins have better depth. Like The Panthers, the Redskins have 2 good TEs in Fred Davis and Chris Cooley. So I believe they have a good offense. The ground game is solid. Tim Hightower may be abck from injury. Roy Helu showed flashes, Even Royster did very well in limited opportunities and Shannahan always seems to find production in the ground game. The backs may not be as talented as Deangelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, but the ground game is probably just as effective, if not more so. RG3 muchlike Cam Newton can go downfield to stretch the deefense and likes going to his wideouts. He has great accuracy, although I believe on the deep passes Cam’s is better by just a little bit. RG3 has a better release of the pass and is even more athletic as a runner, but will not be featured in the redzone as a goalline back like Cam Newton, so he will NOT get nearly as many TDs as Cam Got… Although even if he gets half, that is still great numbers. I project RG3′s rushing stats to be similar to a Mike Vick kind of year. He can potentially break 1000 yards, or at least 500., and I would say 750 +/- 250 is a great guess. I would say 5-9 TDs rushing. I believe RG3 can put up similar numbers through the air. However, it would certainly not be unusual for RG3 to see some serious growing pains his first year. Then again, that’s what people said about Cam Newton.

Both Andrew Luck and RG3 are gambles as they could struggle like Peyton Manning did his rookie year. Rookies tend to struggle at QB spot. However, they have huge potential and not many other players that late in the draft have the upside of either of these guys. Just because Cam Newton happened to work out, doesn’t mean that it was destined to happen. There are plenty of possible scenarios where 2011 wouldn’t go nearly as well. Perhaps all it would have took was a few dropped passes and a few crushing hits early to ruin his confidence and change his throwing motion and cause him to doubt himself and play poorly. Talented players can utterly fail, regardless of how much talent they have (see Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith, Jamarcus Russel, Tim Couch, etc). With that being said, I believe that Both of these guys are determined hard workers that have the right mindset, and will findsuccess early, although “early” could still mean year 2 or 3 (like Peyton Manning).

The thing is, people are expecting RG3 to be this year’s Cam Newton and drafting him higher as a result. Newton went in the 15th round last year. RG3 is going in the 8th round already. So Robert Griffin cannot be this year’s Cam Newton. Maybe that’s the difference of adding minicamp and no NFL lockout this year so people are more comfortable, but he simply won’t be . With that being said, Luck isn’t either, but at least you can still get him with the last pick of the draft, rather than rolling the dice in the 8th round. I could regret saying this one and overlooking RG3 because he is a tremendous talent, but I want to zig when other’s zag and say that Andrew Luck is this year’s Cam Newton… (Minus about 12 rushing TDs)

Who is this year’s Mark Sanchez?

Mark Sanchez Surprisingly was actually 9th in FFL points and even was still 12th if you took away his unusual 6 rushing TDs. In 2010, Sanchez had just under 0.35 FFL points per touch. Not bad if you consider that he was a 14th round draft choice.

What I am going to do this time is evaluate FFL points per attempt relative to the average drafted position. We need to make the ADP inverted so that we can get a number that goes higher as the ADP goes higher AND as the FFL points per attempt goes higher. So we take FFL points per attempt / (1/ADP). Sanchez’s was around 4.5 in 2010.

Since many of the players mentioned previously were completely undrafted and can’t be measured, this leaves us with the following as the only players with a number over 4.

Joe Flacco
Andy Dalton
Josh Freeman

Tim Tebow isn’t starting (yet) so he has been removed. We already covered Alex Smith, Matt Flynn, Carson Palmer and Ryan Fitzpatrick so they have been removed.

This leaves us with Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton and Josh Freeman. Now Jets are known for rushing attack. Sanchez is a player who has been around a few years but hasn’t really emerged as a great fantasy option, but still is a decent player. I think Joe Flacco is in the same boat.

Joe Flacco is this year’s Mark Sanchez.

There are a lot of great QBs going undrafted, and a lot of them have potential to be great. With that being said, I would rather roll the dice with my late picks at a QB knowing there will be many undrafted QBs that will till put up very good numbers.